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Claim: Ghana’s Deputy Finance Minister, Dr Stephen Amoah, has said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target in the 2024 budget was 3.1%.
Verdict: False. DUBAWA’s research revealed that Ghana’s projected GDP growth rate captured in the 2024 budget was not 3.1%, as the Deputy Finance Minister alleged. The 2024 budget statement presented to the country’s Parliament in 2023 disclosed that the macroeconomic targets set for the 2024 fiscal year were 2.8% for the overall real GDP growth rate and 2.1% for the Non-Oil Real GDP growth rate.
Full Text
The Deputy Minister of Finance in Ghana, Dr Stephen Amoah, has alleged the country’s GDP growth rate target for 2024 was 3.1%.
Reacting to the 2024 Mid-Year Budget Review presented to the country’s Parliament by the Finance Minister, Dr Amin Adam, on June 23, 2024, the financial economist said the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) had done much despite the glaring challenges.
“Target setting [is] kind of something we can change depending on the time. Remember our GDP growth [rate], the target for [the] 2024 budget was 3.1%, [but] as I am talking to you know, we are growing at 4.7%, more than that,” Dr Amoah told Accra-based JOY NEWS.
See a video of the discussion where the minister made the claim, starting from minutes 16:45 to 17:01.
DUBAWA decided to probe the claim because of the interest the presentation of the Mid-Year Budget Review has generated in the West African country.
Verification:
Investigations by DUBAWA have revealed that the GDP growth rate projection for 2024 was not 3.1%, as Dr Amoah quoted.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has defined GDP as the measure of the “monetary value of final goods and services – that is, those that are bought by the final user – produced in a country in a given period (say a quarter or a year).”
According to the 2024 Budget and Economic Policy presented on Nov. 15, 2023, Ghana’s GDP growth rate targets for the 2024 fiscal year were 2.8% for overall GDP growth and 2.1% for Non-oil GDP growth.
See a screenshot of page 14 of Ghana’s 2024 Budget and Economic Policy
For the country’s GDP projection figures for the fiscal year in question, see page 14 of the 2024 Budget and Economic Policy.
However, the projected GDP growth rate for 2024 has been revised upward based on what Dr Amin Adam described as “key revisions to the macro-fiscal targets for 2024.”
See page 36, paragraph 166 of the 2024 Mid-Year Budget Review here for the upward revision of Ghana’s 2024 GDP growth rate projection.
“Mr Speaker, key revisions to the macro-fiscal targets for 2024 include: Overall Real GDP Growth rate revised upwards from 2.8 per cent to 3.1 per cent; Non-Oil Real GDP Growth rate of revised upwards from 2.1 per cent to 2.8 per cent,” Ghana’s Finance Minister told lawmakers when he presented the revised 2024 Mid-Year Budget of the government.
The Finance Minister, Dr Adam, explained that the upgraded GDP growth rate from 2.8% to 3.1% reflected a “better-than-expected performance in 2023 and the First Quarter of 2024.”
See page 37, paragraph 171 of the 2024 Mid-Year Budget here.
Conclusion
Given the data provided in the 2024 Budget and Economic Policy, it is not true that Ghana’s 2024 projected GDP growth rate was 3.1%, as Dr Amoah alleged.
However, the Finance Minister, Dr Adam, said the originally projected GDP growth rate of 2.8% for 2024 has been revised to 3.1% for the real GDP growth rate and 2.8% for the Non-Oil GDP growth rate.
