With a few months until Ghana’s crucial election in Dec. 2024, candidates consistently share their visions in the hope that citizens will vote for them. At the University of Professional Studies in Accra on Feb. 7, 2024, the Vice President and presidential candidate of the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, addressed the nation. He outlined his vision statements and touched on some programmes his party would implement if they were retained for a historic third term.
The programme, attended by high-profile party members, including former President John Kufuor, attracted a huge mainstream and online media coverage. The full speech delivered by Dr Bawumia can also be found here.
As part of DUBAWA’s efforts to promote truthful and factual public discourse and fight misinformation and disinformation, our team of fact-checkers has fact-checked some of Dr Bawumia’s claims.
Fact-checker: Kennedy Twumasi
Claim 1: Fiscal deficit was reduced from 8.4% in 2016 to 4.1% by 2019. However, during COVID-19, it increased to 10.8% in 2020 due to revenue declines amid increasing expenditures. (Page 4 bullet point 10)
Verdict: False. Data from the Finance Ministry quotes 6.5%, 4.8% and 11.7% as fiscal deficits for 2016, 2019 and 2020, respectively. The International Monetary Fund also quotes 9%, 7% and 15.2 as fiscal deficits for 2016, 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Verification
Contrary to Dr Bawumia’s assertion, the reported 8.4% fiscal deficit for the year 2016 stands contested by the Ministry of Finance, which officially pegged it at 6.5%.
Furthermore, Dr Bawumia’s reference to a 4.1% deficit was based on a forecast outlined by the Finance Ministry in November 2018 for the ensuing fiscal year 2019. This forecast, documented on page 12 of the 2019 budget highlights, ultimately fell short of realisation, as revealed in the 2020 mid-year budget review, which revised the deficit for 2019 to 4.8%. This can be seen on page 14 of the report.
In contrast, as stipulated on page 25 of the 2021 budget statement and economic policy, the Ministry of Finance indicated a fiscal deficit of 11.7% for the same period.
The 10.8% figure cited by the NPP flagbearer traces back to the Bank of Ghana Monetary Report on Fiscal Development, released in January 2021. This data, capturing the first eleven months (January to November) of 2020, as seen on page 5 of the report, excludes December. Consequently, relying on the 10.8% figure to represent the entire fiscal year’s deficit would be flawed.
Also, according to a press release issued by the IMF on Feb. 10, 2017, after it visited Ghana, it placed Ghana’s overall fiscal deficit at 9%. “In 2016, the overall fiscal deficit (on a cash basis) deteriorated to an estimated 9 percent of GDP, instead of declining to 5¼ per cent of GDP as envisaged under the IMF-supported programme.”
The IMF quoted an overall deficit of 7% of GDP in 2019. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also reported a fiscal deficit of 15.2% for the year 2020, following the conclusion of its Article IV consultation with Ghana on July 19, 2021.
| BUDGET DEFICIT | |||
| 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Ministry of Finance | 6.5 % | 4.8% | 11.7% |
| IMF | 9% | 7% | 15.2% |
Fact-Checker: Kennedy Twumasi
Claim 2: The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 61.2% in 2019 to 76.6% in 2021 but declined to 66.4% in 2023. (Page 6, bullet point 14).
Verdict: Misleading. Even though the debt to GDP for 2019 and 2021 is accurate, the 66.4% quoted by Dr Bawumia for 2023 is misleading as it reflects the debt to GDP as of Sept. 2023. With three months unaccounted for, it is misleading to quote 66.4% as the debt-to-GDP ratio for 2023.
Verification
According to data from the Finance Ministry’s 2022 Public Debt Annual Report, the debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 61.2% in 2019 and increased to 76.6% by 2021.
However, according to the Finance Ministry, the 61.2% data in 2019 excluded ESLA debts. Nevertheless, with the inclusion of ESLA, the IMF positioned the total debt to GDP for 2019 as 63% in its Article IV consultation with Ghana on July 19, 2021. The Bank of Ghana (BoG), in its Monetary Policy Report (January 2021), also stated that total public debt as a percentage of GDP as of December 2019 was 62.38%.
It is, however, crucial to highlight that the reported 66.4% debt-to-GDP ratio for 2023 lacks accuracy. While 66.4% reflects a decline from previous years, Dr Bawumia’s figure pertains to the debt-to-GDP ratio as of Sept 2023, as documented on page 44 of the 2024 budget statement and economic policy. Therefore, excluding data from the final three months (October to December), it is inaccurate to cite 66.4% as the debt-to-GDP ratio for 2023. However, the addition of data for the last quarter for the debt to GDP in 2023 is expected to be published in the 2024 Mid-year budget review.
Source: MOF
Fact Checker: Kennedy Twumasi
Claim 3: Infant mortality per 1000 live births reduced from 37.9 in 2016 to 32.6 in 2022 (page 20, bullet point 57).
Verdict: True. Data from the 2022 Demographic and Health Survey conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service, in collaboration with the Ghana Health Service, World Bank and the World Health Organization, show that infant mortality per 1000 live births in 2016 was 37.9%, while that in 2022 was around 28% and 31.7%.
Verification
Infant mortality means the probability of dying between birth and the first birthday.
According to data obtained from the World Bank, the infant mortality rate per 1000 births stood at 37.9% in 2016. However, data for the year 2022 remained unavailable through the World Bank’s records.
Nevertheless, DUBAWA’s research uncovered the 2022 Demographic and Health Survey conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service in collaboration with the Ghana Health Service, World Bank and the World Health Organization. This data revealed that the infant mortality rate per 1000 live births in 2022 notably declined to 28%. Some other research platforms, like macrotrends, pegs the 2022 figure at 31.7%.
Source: GHS/GSS/World Bank
Fact Checker: Kennedy Twumasi
Claim 4: The cost of living in the world has increased massively following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Global inflation increased from 1.55% in 2016 to 8.27% at the end of 2022, a fivefold increase. (Page 51, bullet point 131)
Verdict: True, the World Bank quotes 1.6% and 8%, respectively, as global inflation rates in 2016 and 2022 respectively.
Verification
DUBAWA sourced data from the World Bank. Our research discovered that global inflation rates for 2016 and 2022 were 1.6% and 8%, respectively.
Fact checker: A. Kwabena Brakopowers
Claim 5: The 2024 Presidential candidate of Ghana’s governing New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, says the West African country is currently ranked as the 6th e-commerce market in Africa by UNCTAD.
Verdict: This is false. The latest business-to-consumer (B2C) E-commerce Index 2020 published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) ranked Ghana as the fifth B2C e-commerce market in Africa. Libya, the North African country, was ranked sixth in the 2020 Index. However, the West African country was rather the 6th top African country on the 2018 Index. The highest-ranked country on the 2020 index on the continent is Mauritius, followed by South Africa, Tunisia, Algeria, and Ghana. Nigeria is ranked the 8th e-commerce market in Africa.
Full Text
Outlining some initiatives implemented to reposition the economy of Ghana at a public lecture held on Feb. 7, 2024, Dr Bawumia said owing to the government’s digitisation efforts, the West African country is currently ranked by UNCTAD as the 6th e-commerce market in Africa.
Dr Bawumia noted in paragraph 73 of his address that:
“The digital payments infrastructure is boosting e-commerce in Ghana. Businesses are booming over Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, etc. Many people who cannot afford to rent or build shops can do business on the Internet at little cost, with deliveries helped by digital addresses and payments using mobile money interoperability.
This can be done 24 hours a day! Ghana is currently ranked number 6 in Africa in terms of e-commerce after Mauritius, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia and Morocco, according to UNCTAD.”
Verification
DUBAWA reviewed the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’s business-to-consumer (B2C) E-commerce Indexes because Ghana’s Vice President and the 2024 Presidential candidate of the country’s governing party specifically attributed his data to the global body.
As of Feb. 8, 2024, the latest UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index is the 2020 report. According to the World Body, the B2C E-commerce Index measures an economy’s preparedness to support online shopping by considering four indicators related to online shopping for which there is wide country coverage.
The four indicators are account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile money service provider, individuals using the internet, postal reliability Index, and secure internet servers, UNCTAD has said. See pages 1 and 2 of the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2020.
The UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, 2020 ranked Ghana as the fifth B2C e-commerce market in Africa and the 81st globally, with an index value of 51.9%. See page 15 of the report here.
Libya, a North African country, is ranked sixth on the continent and 85th in the world with an index value of 49.7%, as shown by the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, 2020.
The highest-ranked country on the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, 2020, in Africa is Mauritius, which is 68th globally with an index value of 58.4. South Africa follows the East African nation with 56.5%, Tunisia with 54.6%, Algeria with 52.2%, and Ghana. Nigeria is ranked the 8th e-commerce market in Africa and 94th globally with an index value of 46.2%, UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, 2020 has disclosed.
However, Ghana was the 6th top African country on the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, 2018, with an index value of 48.8%, making the West African country the 85th-ranked nation in the world. See page 13 of the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, 2018.
A search by DUBAWA revealed the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, 2020, which was released on Feb. 17, 2021, with the latest report expected in the first quarter of 2024. According to the global body’s publication schedule, the report is released every three years.
Conclusion
It is not true that Ghana is currently ranked the 6th e-commerce market in Africa by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The UNCTAD B3C E-commerce Index, 2020, released on Feb. 17, 2021, ranked Ghana as the fifth B2C e-commerce country in Africa and the 81st globally.
Fact checker: A. Kwabena Brakopowers
Claim 6: The 2024 Presidential candidate of Ghana’s governing New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, says the West African country ranked first in the sub-region and fourth in Africa on the “UNDP 2022 E-Governance Index.
Verdict: This is misleading. The United Nation’s E-Government Survey 2022 ranked Ghana as the 7th African country with the highest E-Government Development Index (EGDI). With an EGDI global rank of 106, Ghana is first in West Africa, followed by Cabo Verde, which is the 8th in Africa and second in the sub-region with an EGDI global rank of 110, the E-Government Survey 2022 has revealed. South Africa is the highest-ranked African country on the 2022 Survey, followed by Mauritius, Seychelles, Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt.
Full Text
The Vice President of Ghana said the progress made in providing e-government services in the country is “remarkable.”
Dr Bawumia noted that:
“According to the UNDP 2022 E-Governance index, Ghana is ranked Number one in West Africa and Number four in the whole of Africa in terms of E-Governance and ahead of countries such as Rwanda, Botswana, Cote d’Ïvoire, Senegal, Kenya and Uganda.”
See paragraph 86 of page 31 of the speech delivered by Dr Bawumia.
DUBAWA decided to probe the claim made by the Second Gentleman of Ghana as part of its campaign against misinformation and disinformation in the West African country.
Verification
Contrary to the claim made by Dr Bawumia, the United Nation’s E-Government Survey 2022 ranked Ghana as the 7th African country with the highest E-Government Development Index (EGDI).
With an EGDI global rank of 106, Ghana is first in West Africa, followed by Cabo Verde, which is the 8th in Africa and second in the sub-region with an EGDI global rank of 110, the E-Government Survey 2022 has revealed.
The UN data has shown that the only countries in West Africa that made it to the top ten highest-ranked African countries on the EGDI Survey 2022 are Ghana and Cabo Verde.
The E-Government Development Index captures the state of E-Government Development of the United Nations member states. “Along with an assessment of the website development patterns in a country, the E-Government Development Index incorporates the access characteristics, such as the infrastructure and educational levels, to reflect how a country is using information technologies to promote access and inclusion of its people,” the world body, has said.
The E-Government Survey 2022 has disclosed that the highest-ranked African country on the 2022 Survey is South Africa with a global EGDI rank of 65, followed by Mauritius with an EGDI rank of 75, Seychelles with an EGDI rank of 85, and Tunisia with an EGDI rank of 88.
The others are Morocco, fifth in Africa, with a global EGDI rank of 101, and Egypt, with an EGDI rank of 103. The 10th highest-ranked country in Africa is Kenya, with a global EGDI rank of 113, the E-Government Survey 2022 has said.
Conclusion
While Ghana tops all West African countries on the UN E-Government Survey 2022, it is the 7th ranked country in Africa, as the E-Government Survey 2022 revealed.
