NDC

Claim: X account @CediRates NDC has communicated its intent to criminally prosecute the current Bank of Ghana governor for illegal actions and economic mismanagement. They have also pledged an overhaul of BoG and intend to reinstate the revoked licenses of some banks.

Verdict: True

Explanation

The National Communications Officer of the party, Sammy Gyamfi, in an interview on Onua TV on August 9, 2023 said that the Governor of the Central bank, Ernest Addison, and members of the Bank’s board will face prosecution for decisions which led to the bank incurring a GHC 60bn loss. 

“Ernest Addison is jail bound. He is destined for jail. There is no way Addison will not be prosecuted, there is no way,”  he declared in the interview (between minutes 0:00 – 4:40).
In the 2024 NDC Manifesto (page 23 and 24), the party said it was going to “restore the licenses of wrongfully collapsed financial institutions” as well as “restructure the Bank of Ghana to strengthen its independence and operational efficiency to deliver its price and financial stability mandate.”

Claim: A photo of Kennedy Agyapong clad in NDC paraphernalia and celebrating with NDC supporters is circulating on social media, suggesting that he has switched allegiance after the 2024 elections.

Verdict: False

Explanation

_{The viral photo}

Verification by the Ghana Fact-Checking Coalition confirms that Kennedy Agyapong has not switched sides. The photo dates back to 2016. According to a GhanaWeb report from that year, the NPP frontrunner attended an NPP event at the same location as Sam George’s campaign launch and took the photo as a gesture of unity ahead of the 2016 elections.

Claim: An X user shared a video claiming that two men who confronted soldiers during the voting exercise in Obuasi East are now receiving treatment in a hospital. (Source: @RoGoat7 (X) (Archived here).

Verdict: True.

Explanation: We compared the video of the two men in a hospital with the video of the scuffle and found them to be the same people.  Although their shirts were now off, the men were still wearing the same trousers spotted in the initial video. Similarly, an unidentified man who appeared in the scuffle video was also seen with them at the hospital. The X user’s claim is, therefore, true.

Claim: KT Hammond has lost his seat. (Source: Facebook, Twitter)

Verdict: False 

Explanation

Reports that the Member of Parliament for Adansi Asokwa Constituency, K. T Hammond, has lost his seat are not confirmed yet. The Ghana Fact-checking Coalition gathers that the Electoral Commission is still collating results from the various polling stations and has yet to declare a winner. An EC officer in the Asokwa Constituency confirmed to the Coalition that the collation of votes is ongoing and no winner has been declared yet. 

CLAIM: Multiple social media users claim US President-elect, Donald Trump has endorsed the NDC’s presidential candidate for the 2024 election, John Dramani Mahama.

Verdict: False

Explanation

Sources are: Facebook, Facebook, TikTok  (archived here). There are no media reports of this supposed endorsement. There is no video of Trump endorsing Mahama, no news reports on it, and no posts on social media by the official handles of both Mahama and Trump. This endorsement was spotted on about two handles on Facebook and TikTok( here, here, and here). Aside from the apparent unnatural tone the acclaimed voice carries, when tested on AI or Not, a tool that substantiates synthetic contents, the results indicate that the audio was artificially generated and cloned to seem like Donald Trump’s voice.

As Ghana approaches the December 7 general elections, there is rising political tension amid calls for a peaceful atmosphere.

Citizens are gearing up to exercise their democratic rights, while presidential candidates are, as expected, making their final appeals for votes.

Nonetheless, Thursday, December 5, will mark the end of campaign activities, with the NDC and NPP holding their final rallies before polling day.

However, beyond the rallies and promises, voting patterns from past elections provide vital insights into what each party needs to secure to win. NDC and NPP have made claims, setting percentage targets of votes that should get them to win.

This analysis by DUBAWA delves into historical voting trends in the Volta, Oti, and Ashanti Regions to answer a critical question: What percentage of votes does the NDC need in Volta and Ashanti to win over the NPP?

Volta and Oti Region Voting Patterns (1992-2020)

The Volta Region has been the NDC’s strongest fortress since 1992.

Below is a detailed breakdown of the party’s performance against the NPP over the years:

Volta Region Historical Data

Year	NDC Votes (%)	NPP Votes (%)
1992	93.24	3.61
1996	94.55	4.73
2000	86.28	7.90
2004	84.06	13.68
2008	82.46	15.38
2012	91.39	7.41
2016	87.67	10.81
2020	84.81	14.14

Oti Region Performance

Before 2018, the Oti Region was part of Volta. It officially became a separate entity following a referendum, with its capital being Dambai. Here’s how NDC and NPP have performed in Oti since 2016:

Year	NDC Votes (%)	NPP Votes (%)
2016	63.43	34.58
2020	62.78	35.67

Ashanti Region Voting Patterns (1992-2020)

The Ashanti Region has consistently been the NPP’s stronghold.

Below is a summary of the party’s dominance over the years:

Year	NPP Votes (%)	Outcome
1992	60.54	Lost
1996	65.8	Lost
2000	80.5	Won
2004	76.97	Won
2008	74.39	Lost
2012	70.86	Lost
2016	76.27	Won
2020	71.64	Won

Key insights from DUBAWA

NDC in Volta and Oti Regions

The NDC’s dominance in Volta remains critical. Any significant reduction below 80% could jeopardise their chances in 2024, especially as Oti remains a more competitive landscape for the NPP.

In Oti, the NPP’s growing vote share (35% in 2020) indicates the need for the NDC to intensify campaigns to maintain at least 60% of the vote.

Critical questions tackled by DUBAWA based on historical voting patterns in Ashanti and Volta Regions, including Oti, from 1992 to 2020:

What percentage does the NDC require in Volta?

The NDC needs to secure at least 80% of the votes in the Volta Region to maintain its dominance in 2024. This level of support is critical to offset NPP’s strength in Ashanti and swing regions.

What percentage does the NDC require in Oti?

Given the NPP’s steady rise in the Oti Region, the NDC must achieve at least 60% of the votes. Falling below this threshold could weaken the NDC’s overall chances in the 2024 national election.

What percentage does the NDC require in Ashanti?

The Ashanti Region has been challenging for the NDC due to NPP’s rooted dominance. However, to make a significant impact, the NDC must aim for at least 30% to 35% of the votes in Ashanti.

In 1996, when the NDC came close to this range with 33.8%, they won the national election.

However, in 2016 and 2020, the NDC’s vote share in Ashanti dropped below 30%, correlating with losses in the national polls.

A performance above 30% in Ashanti would demonstrate increased support and be crucial in neutralising NPP’s numerical advantage in 2024.

Does winning 75% of Ashanti guarantee NPP victory?

No. While a strong performance in Ashanti is vital for the NPP, their national victory depends on strong results in swing regions, particularly Greater Accra, Central, and Western.

Swing Regions Matter

Both parties must perform well in swing regions like Greater Accra, Central, and Western to secure a national win. For instance, the NPP secured over 74% in Ashanti in 2008 but lost the national election due to weaker outcomes in Greater Accra and Central Regions.

Conclusion

While Volta and Ashanti Regions remain key battlegrounds for NDC and NPP, neither stronghold guarantees victory.

The outcome of the December 7 elections will ultimately be determined by how well each party performs in swing regions.

Both political parties must strategically target Greater Accra, Central, and Western to secure the presidency.

Claim: Some Facebook users (Archived here)claim some NDC agents are using handheld counting devices to interfere with biometric voter verification.

Verdict: Insufficient evidence

Explanation

The device pictured and alleged to be used by some National Democratic Congress (NDC) party agents to interfere with the Electoral Commission’s voter verification process is a hand tally counter, also known as a tally clicker. 
Tally clickers are used to count incrementally without manually marking them down on paper. Multiple product sources confirm these devices do not interfere with other devices as they are mechanical and some operate without batteries. While some advanced tally counters can connect to smartphones and computers, there isn’t enough evidence to support the claim that these devices can interfere with biometric verification processes.

Claim: X users @NanaKwame_off, @GrefDuah, and @AmoakoKwam claim NDC Parliamentary candidate for Ayawaso West Wuogon, John Dumelo, called Maa Lydia a husband killer in bulk SMS to constituents. 

Verdict: False 

Explanation

The Ghana Fact-Checking Coalition checked with multiple voters in the constituency and they denied receiving a message with such content from John Dumelo.

We subjected the screenshot of the alleged text to Forensically, a digital image forensics tool and it revealed some cloning effect. The noise analysis feature of the tool showed that the name of the sender (JohnDumelo) was superimposed on an existing name. 

We also spoke to Mr Dumelo who denied sending the alleged text message to his constituents describing it as ‘fake news’.

Claim 1:  A Facebook user claims John Mahama, the NDC 2024 flagbearer, left office on January 6, 2017, when Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio was 56%. 

Verdict: False!

Explanation

Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ministry of Finance showed that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio was above 72% in 2016 when Mahama exited office, not 57%, as claimed.  

Claim 2:  A Facebook user claims John Mahama, the NDC 2024 flagbearer, left office on January 6, 2017, when Ghana’s inflation was 15%.

Verdict: True!

Explanation

The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS)’s 2016 year-on-year inflation rate confirmed that the inflation rate, as of December 31, 2024, was 15%.

Claim 3:  A Facebook user claims John Mahama, the NDC 2024 flagbearer, left office on January 6, 2017, when Ghana’s unemployment rate was 8%.

Verdict: True!

Explanation

The GLSS 7 survey conducted between October 2016 and October 2017, confirmed Ghana’s labour force comprised 12,244,318 people, with 11,216,724 employed and 1,027,596 unemployed. Using the unemployment rate formula, dividing 1,027,596 by 12,244,318 and multiplying the result (0.0839) by 100%, the unemployment rate for 2016/2017 was 8.39%, rounded to 8.4%. Therefore, the social media user’s claim is true.

Claim: A Facebook user shared an image of renowned Afro dancehall artist Stonebwoy clad in an NDC shirt on Dec. 4, 2024.  

Verdict: False

Explanation: The picture is doctored. The Ghana Fact-Checking Coalition conducted a Google reverse image search and found that the image first appeared online on Feb. 22, 2022. Find other links to the photo posted on Facebook in 2022 here and here.

The Ghana Fact-checking Coalition found no publication by any major media outlet confirming Stonebwoy’s allegiance to the NDC. However, the artist’s head of security confirmed the picture as “edited.”