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Claim: NPP communication team member, Kofi Tonto, says that global crude prices doubled within two months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Verdict: DUBAWA has reviewed the historical trend in global crude prices and found the claim to be false.
Full Text
Member of the communication team of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Kofi Tonto, has reiterated the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Ghana’s economy during the erstwhile administration.
The deputy spokesperson to Dr Mahamadu Bawumia, the NPP presidential candidate for the 2028 election, said that a sharp rise in global crude oil prices, due to the war, placed significant pressure on Ghana.
Speaking on TV3’s New Day on March 4, Kofi Tonto asserted that crude prices doubled within two months of the war, leading to the surge in fuel prices in Ghana.
He argued that if crude oil prices can nearly double within a short period, the effects would inevitably be felt in Ghana’s economy through rising fuel prices.
“In January/February 2022, crude was hovering around $66 per barrel, but by March/April, crude was almost $120 per barrel,” he claimed between minutes 24:13 and 27:00 of the show, which was livestreamed on various social media platforms.
Giving further insight, he explained that fuel prices in Ghana were determined by three factors: the international price of crude, the dollar exchange rate, and taxes. Among these three, he said the global crude oil price carries the greatest weight in the fuel price buildup.
“When you come to the domestic market, there is the actual price of crude, dollar, and tax; these are things that generally go into the price build-up of petrol on our market. But on a weighted average, the price of crude is higher than the remaining,” he said.
“If crude prices can double within the span of two months, then certainly, it will have an impact on our economy,” Kofi Tonto added.
The New Patriotic Party has been consistent in labelling the Russia-Ukraine war as a major disruption to its management of the Ghanaian economy, a narrative the National Democratic Congress has since disagreed with.
Did crude prices double between February and April 2022?
DUBAWA decided to fact-check the claim in line with our mandate to combat misinformation and to promote truth in public discourse.
Verification
To verify Kofi Tonto’s claim, we relied on historical data from Yahoo Finance, Macrotrends.net, and Oilprice.com, and limited our scope to January to April 2022.
We observed that while Yahoo Finance and OilPrice provided daily price data, Macrotrends offered only monthly averages. Again, we noticed that Yahoo Finance’s data was consistent with OilPrice’s.
The closing price for crude oil on February 24, the day the full‑scale war between Russia and Ukraine began, was $92.81. By the end of April that same year, the price had crossed $100 and was trading at $104.69. This was after the price peaked at $123.70 on March 8 and dropped sharply the next day (March 9) to $108.70.
The chart shows crude prices from January 2022 to April 2022. The black rectangle covers when the war began, the red shows the peak price of crude between February and April, the green rectangle shows when the price of crude oil two months after the war begun | | Source: Yahoo Finance
Mathematically, the price of Crude Oil at the start of the war in February did not double by April 2022. The percentage change from $92.81 (February 24) to $123.70 (March 8 – peak price) is 33.28 per cent.
Even with Macrotrends’ monthly average, the percentage change from February ($96.13) to April ($104.59) is 8.8 per cent. The average price of crude in January was $89.16 per barrel. The percentage change from January’s average crude price to April’s price is 17.3 percent
Conclusion
It is not true that global crude prices doubled from $66 per barrel to about $120 per barrel within two months of the Russia-Ukraine war. Historical data from Yahoo Finance, OilPrice, and Macrotrends show that, at the start of the war on February 24, the global price of crude was about $92 per barrel, not the $66 quoted. While the price hit $120 per barrel at some point within the two months, it was a 33 per cent increase from the price at the start of the war.
